Plus: Paxton's leaked excuses, a MAGA makeover, and over half a million lost voter registrations.
Hey y’all, it’s Brian Gaar with The Barbed Wire. Welcome back to the home stretch of the midterm elections.
Democrats are leading in nearly every statewide Texas race, according to a new poll, while Ken Paxton is privately complaining about his Senate campaign’s struggles and a North Texas Republican is scrubbing the “ultra MAGA” branding from her campaign.
Meanwhile, the state is facing a lawsuit over more than 500,000 voter registration applications that went unprocessed ahead of the midterm.
Early voting is less than a week away, let’s dig in.
😰 Democrats are making Republicans sweat
A new poll finds Democrats narrowly leading in nearly every statewide race, though all the margins fall within the poll’s margin of error.
In the U.S. Senate race, Democrat James Talarico leads Ken Paxton 50% to 47%. Talarico also has a huge advantage among independents, 69% of whom view him favorably, compared with 11% for Paxton.
Meanwhile, Democrat Gina Hinojosa leads Gov. Greg Abbott 49% to 48%, and Democrat Vikki Goodwin leads Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick 49% to 46%.
Republicans still have plenty of loyal voters, but Democrats report greater enthusiasm about voting in the University of Texas/Texas Politics Project.
Like I said, early voting begins Monday, Oct. 19, so there’s not much time left for the GOP to figure out what’s going on.
Ken Paxton has some excuses
And speaking of freaked-out Republicans, in leaked audio Paxton told donors that Gov. Greg Abbott is “struggling” in his reelection bid and conceded that Republicans will probably lose some seats in the Texas Legislature. The recordings from a private fundraiser, obtained by Rolling Stone, offer a behind-the-scenes look at Paxton trying to explain why his own campaign is struggling against Talarico.
Paxton blamed his brutal primary, negative ads, a lack of time to raise money, and Talarico’s name recognition. He also complained that Donald Trump’s September convention in Dallas hurt his numbers, and said the war in Iran and rising gas prices were weighing on his campaign.
At one point, he even took a swipe at Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick over the 2017 ban on straight-ticket voting, despite Paxton having defended the ban in court as attorney general.
A Paxton spokesperson dismissed the recordings as a “partisan hit job,” insisting Republicans remain united behind him. (Just don’t call John Cornyn, right?)
🤣 MAGA makeover
And speaking of even MORE freaked-out Republicans, GOP member Leigh Wambsganss is scrubbing the “ultra MAGA” branding from her campaign as she prepares for a rematch with Democrat Taylor Rehmet in a North Texas state Senate district Donald Trump won by 17 points in 2024.
Wambsganss has removed a “Trump Endorsed” banner from her website, swapped campaign photos, and replaced her old yard signs with blue ones declaring, “Putting working families first.”
The makeover follows an embarrassing January special-election loss, when Rehmet beat Wambsganss with 57% of the vote and flipped a seat Republicans had held for 12 years.
Now Wambsganss says she wants to focus on property taxes and affordability, while Rehmet is emphasizing healthcare costs, schools, and the rising cost of living.
Wambsganss insists she’s still proud of Trump’s endorsement. Lol.
Half a million (!) voter registrations lost in the system
Voting rights groups are suing Texas after more than 500,000 voter registration applications and updates submitted through the Department of Public Safety’s online portal went unprocessed.
The groups want a judge to enforce a 2021 settlement requiring the state to maintain a reliable way to register voters when they renew or update their driver’s licenses or state IDs.
The backlog dates to at least October 2025 and stems from a software update error. Problems with the secretary of state’s voter registration system have made it harder to clear, and the lawsuit says some Texans are still facing registration problems ahead of the Nov. 3 election.
The groups want state agencies ordered to fix the process, produce records documenting the failures, and prove compliance within a month.
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